With companies scrambling to release competitors, Philip Berne thinks about what it would take to keep him from lining up at the big glass cube at the end of the month.
Forget about naysayers who are already complaining about the iPhone's battery life and listing all the ways the iPhone will fail. We've seen the commercials, the short videos, the spec sheets, and we're convinced that this will be a phone worthy of a long, hard look. Still, with everything we know about the iPhone, there may be some chinks in the armor. Here are some possible devices that could come along and steal the iPhone's thunder.
A Playstation phone
The Playstation Portable and the Playstation 3 are bombing, though not because they lack features. Think it's impossible for Sony to come from behind and score a goal with a new Playstation phone? Think about Nintendo, instead. With the Gamecube failing, and the Game Boy Advance feeling a bit left behind, Nintendo came from behind with two consecutive releases that caught the imagination of the gaming public. Sony already has a foot in the cell phone door, thanks to the company's partnership with Ericsson, and is responsible for some very impressive phones, including the Walkman-based W880i. If Sony were to put some of its gaming muscle, with all of the third-party support that entails, behind a proper gaming phone, with the best controls of any gaming phone on the market, they could easily capture a segment of the gadget populous ignored since the abysmal Nokia N-Gage. A PSPhone would have instant brand recognition, as well, and would get plenty of hype, which Apple has exploited to a new extreme with the iPhone. Combined with Sony's interface designs, which are actually better than most manufacturers, and perhaps throw in a Carl Zeiss lens from the CyberShot family, and you've got your first iPhone killer.
A Vista phone
As users of Mac OS X from the beta stages, we're used to an OS with some graphical flourish, and were impressed in the short time we've spent with Microsoft's new interface. Sure, it would be impossible to shrink the core down to a manageable size for a phone, but at least the Windows Mobile team could draw some inspiration from the snazzy new Windows. Windows Mobile 6 left us feeling flat; most of the improvements had to do with shortcuts and the back end. Nice enough, but seeing HTML e-mail in the mobile Outlook app left us wanting more. HTC made an attempt at glamorizing the OS with their TouchFLO interface on the new HTC Touch, but once you get beyond the new Today screen, the device is pure Windows Mobile 6. How about a real graphical upgrade for WM7? There are going to be plenty of users who are so tethered to Windows that an iPhone will be out of the question. To cement that relationship, Microsoft needs to "start their copiers," to paraphrase an old Steve Jobs attack at the Redmond giant when the last Mac OS X version was shown.
A cheap phone that makes great calls
Everyone wants it, everyone asks about it. It's time for Motorola or Samsung to put out a cheap phone, free after subsidies, that makes the greatest calls you've ever heard on a cell phone. And it shouldn't do anything else. A phonebook and some basic SMS, maybe, but no productivity, no Web browsing, and especially no lousy camera. Just great calls. The iPhone is going to scare away a lot of people who complain loudly about all these features on phones that can't make a decent call. Answer their complaints. Without advanced data, battery life should be excellent. And without all the other features that basic users don't want, it will be easy to keep costs down, keep bulk to a minimum, and make everybody happy. Just great calls, that's all.
The Nokia N95, for real, this time
The Nokia N95 does everything; we just can't say it enough. All the features you wish the iPhone had? The N95 has them, and does things you didn't even think a phone could do. 3G? Done. GPS? No problem. DVD-quality video recording? Didn't think of that one, did you? How about video calls? The N95 can do everything we've seen any phone do, and it does everything pretty well, including still images, where most phones flounder. Unfortunately, if you want to use the most advanced features, like the high speed HSDPA networking and the video calling, you need to move to another continent, because our networks aren't supporting these features, yet. Even when AT&T rolls out video sharing this summer, it will be to a few, select phones, though many European imports have front-facing cameras for just this purpose. If Nokia could bring a fully operational Nokia N95 to the U.S., even at the current $750+ price point, it would answer all the critics who complain about what the iPhone can't do.
T-Mobile @Home
If you can't cut the price of the phone, cut the price of the service. UMA lets your cell phone hop from your carrier's network to your home or office's Wi-Fi, without cutting you off. Presumably, calls made on Wi-Fi will cost you less than those transmitted through your carrier's towers. T-Mobile has been sporadically vocal about this service, called T-Mobile @Home, and has been beta testing in the U.S., but has yet to announce an official rollout. Besides the iPhone's actual hardware cost, customers could be looking at mandatory, 2-year contracts with plans that will run $70 a month or more. A $100 cell phone plan for iPhone early adopters isn't inconceivable. Were T-Mobile to step in with a reasonably priced hardware setup and an even better monthly rate, perhaps lower than $30/month, including myFaves but not counting minutes used on Wi-Fi networks, they would be able to compete with the iPhone in a way no carrier has mentioned, at the mailbox instead of the storefront.
Not everyone will own an iPhone; even Apple's own sales estimates are conservative. Still, that doesn't mean other company's aren't worried and scrambling to compete. The worst way to beat the iPhone is to try to mimic Apple's design and interface. The best way would be to make an end run around the iPhone, and do the things the phone itself can't, or the things Apple and AT&T simply won't.
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