As 3G services finally begin to appear, Larry Garfield sees a future for 3G data services not just for mobile devices, but for the home, too.
In the past several weeks, 3G data services have finally begun to crop up from various mobile carriers around the world. Billed as the future of mobile communication, 3G services in theory can scale all the way to the megabit range while stationary, and the current generation of networks are advertising 300-500 kbps just to start. That's a huge jump from the 30 kbps or so one can expect from conventional "2.5G" services like GPRS and 1xRTT, and proponents and marketers alike love to talk about all the wonderful new mobile applications it will enable. But just as importantly, it can enable new fixed-point applications as well.
Fixed-point wireless is hardly new. Fixed-point GSM phones are already available, and targeted at rural or under-developed areas where the cost of deploying a massive landline infrastructure is too high but people want phones that don't need to be constantly recharged. Such phones emphasize voice, however, while 3G is all about wide-area high-speed wireless data networks. But who says they have to be mobile?
Landline broadband services are currently dominated by DSL and cable modems, both of which are predominantly urban technologies. The network infrastructure is there for such systems while it isn't always feasible elsewhere, and DSL in particular is very distance-sensitive. For users in rural areas, satellite is currently the best option but it has a huge latency problem, in addition to being expensive. That leaves plain old dial-up as the only option for many areas.
3G services, however, offer near-broadband speeds at a fraction of the deployment costs of cable. Perhaps not the 1.5 Mbps downstream of some cable modems, but at 300 kbps it still blows the pants off of dial-up. It also doesn't require laying new cable in the case of developing areas that don't even have phone service yet. It also operates on the same channels as voice service, making it possible to roll out voice service and high-speed data on the same wireless link for the cost of a single tower and backbone line rather than thousands of kilometers of copper or even fiber.
Of course, there's also community wireless, a "mesh" of inter-connected Wi-Fi nodes. While promising, and a cool use of the technology, Wi-Fi's limited range makes it only viable in densly populated urban areas. Another option is WiMax, which promises similar ranges to 3G with even more speed when it actually arrives. WiMax is data-only, though, and few companies would want to roll out or subscribe to WAN networks if they can't squeeze every penny out of it that they can.
3G fixed-point wireless would work in both urban areas, where it would compete head to head with DSL and cable, and rural areas, where it would be a great alternative to satellite or laying wire in the first place. Remember, competition is what makes an economy work, as it forces down prices and forces up investments. Repeat after me: Competition is good.
Although current prices for 3G service are higher than most landline broadband, that's due mostly to it being an emerging technology. Time and competition will slowly force prices down to where it can compete head to head with cable and DSL, and push their prices down as well, or compete on value-added service.
Imagine a single package for fixed-point wireless data service at home plus one or two mobile phones with voice and data service, and possibly a PC card for a laptop, all for under $100 USD per month (not counting equipment). That's not too far fetched once prices come down a bit and companies wise up, and substantially less than separate broadband and phone service. Ditch landline companies completely and go all wireless. Just add electricity!
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