The Yankee Group forecasts the number of global wireless users to have exceeded 1.75 Billion by 2008. Also: US wireless penetration will reach 50% by year's end.
A new report from the Yankee Group finds that operators in all parts of the globe will be spared a steep decline in earnings due to reduced voice traffic, thanks to increases in both penetration of data services and revenues generated by these. Also aiding operators is a predicted growth of new subscribers of nearly 9 percent from 2002 to 2007, exceeding 1.75 billion.
The Asia-Pacific region has bucked the global trend of declining telecom growth for the last several years, with the overall pace of mobile user and mobile service revenue growth having remained steady. In this region, the Yankee Group projects the regional user base will grow from 436 million in 2002 to 773 million in 2007, with markets such as India and the surging popularity of prepaid subscriptions fuelling much of this growth.
"The opportunities for growth in Asia continue to come from new network deployments in emerging markets, with a great deal of growth projected for China and India," says Shiv Putcha, a Yankee Group Wireless/Mobile Asia-Pacific senior analyst. "However, operators and regulators in the Asia-Pacific region are showing overt caution while unfavorable economic conditions persist. The momentum toward 3G in Asia, for example, has stalled or is being reassessed."
The Yankee Group believes, however, that the region has dealt with many of its 3G growth problems and there are positive signs of 3G momentum. Even operators without 3G licenses have announced or are contemplating alternative scenarios, typically involving deployment of EDGE networks.
In related news, the Yankee Group has also issued a new report stating the wireless industry in the US is approaching maturity with impressive speed. Only two years ago, the U.S. wireless industry was one of the few remaining emerging high-growth sectors. However, with almost 50 percent penetration, North Americans now treat wireless like a utility rather than a novelty.
"The U.S. wireless industry is facing the threat of becoming like the airline industry with high fixed costs, low variable costs, a perishable product and cutthroat competition," says Roger Entner, a Yankee Group Wireless/Mobile Services program manager. "These conditions make it easy for industry participants to behave in a way that has potentially disastrous consequences in the long run. Airline travel is cheaper than ever before, but few customers are happy with the experience."
With the current state of wireless competition, the Yankee Group says it is only a matter of time before unlimited calling plans are available nationwide in the US, and predicts that Wireless number portability (WNP) - commencing on November 24, 2003 - will likely be a catalyst for this.
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